It was two months in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
